Just 60 days ago when the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager scolded him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, the question was whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. When Rogers swept in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard question to answer. History, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding in many games, even as the positive results have stacked up.
According to Opta, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club that have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with the opposition and wait for Rogers to save the day with some precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened versus United.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero faced the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
