Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
